Oil prices fell for a third consecutive session on Friday as expectations that Saudi Arabia could restore part of its disrupted crude export capacity eased immediate concerns over supply, despite fresh fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis.
As at the time of writing, 07:20 am (WAT), Brent crude was trading at $103.50 per barrel, down 1.25%, while WTI stood at $100.80 per barrel, down 1.05%. Both benchmarks had also declined by about 1% in the previous session.
Brent is now heading for its first weekly decline in three weeks, with the benchmark down about 0.5% for the week, while WTI is still on course for a 1.2% weekly gain. The market remains above the $100 per barrel threshold as traders assess whether disrupted physical supply can return to normal.
The latest price weakness follows reports that Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore about half the capacity of its East-West oil pipeline within days, after the system was damaged in an attack last week. The disruption had forced Saudi Arabia to suspend crude loadings at its Red Sea export hub of Yanbu and cancel some deliveries to Europe.
Saudi Arabia is also offering additional crude cargoes to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s Sohar port, providing an alternative route for some supplies while repairs to the pipeline continue. Reuters, however, reported that sources have provided varying estimates of how long it will take for the pipeline to reopen fully and crude flows to return to normal.
The developments have reduced some of the immediate supply anxiety, but the physical market is yet to establish a clear timeline for a full recovery in Saudi exports. This is keeping a geopolitical premium in crude prices, particularly as traders continue to monitor flows through the Middle East.
The risk to regional oil transportation also remains elevated. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said a Togo-flagged oil tanker was struck while attempting what Iranian state media described as an “illegal passage” through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.
At the same time, fresh exchanges of strikes between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have widened the conflict front, keeping the Red Sea and surrounding export infrastructure under close watch by the oil market.
For Nigeria’s downstream market, sustained crude prices around or above $100 per barrel remain significant for petrol and diesel replacement costs, particularly for import-dependent supply chains. Any prolonged disruption to Saudi exports, Hormuz traffic or Red Sea shipping could add further pressure to international product costs and Nigeria’s landing-cost calculations.
The immediate market question is therefore whether Saudi Arabia can restore crude flows quickly enough to ease the supply tightness. Until there is sustained evidence of improved physical flows through the affected routes, Brent and WTI remain exposed to further movements linked to Middle East supply disruptions.