Crude oil prices remained above $100 per barrel early Friday as the market weighed improving Middle East supply flows against renewed geopolitical concerns and uncertainty over the movement of crude and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz.
As of 06:15am (WAT), Brent crude was trading at $102.10 per barrel, down 0.23%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $92.40 per barrel, down 0.51%.
The relatively narrow movement follows a volatile session in which oil prices rose by more than $4 on Thursday after reports of additional US military deployments to the Middle East and China's decision to suspend October refined-product exports heightened concerns about global fuel availability. Reuters reported that the market was balancing those supply concerns against signs of improving Saudi crude exports.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the market's outlook. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the United States had “virtually total control” of the strategic waterway and claimed that more oil had passed through the strait in the previous three days than at any point in its history. The claim was made as the US-Iran conflict continued to influence shipping and energy markets.
Trump's statement points to an apparent increase in oil movement through the waterway, but the broader market remains focused on whether those flows can be sustained under current security conditions. Reuters has separately reported that Middle East crude exports have been recovering, although significant disruption to regional crude, refined-product and gas flows remains.
Saudi Arabia's improving export picture is providing some relief to the physical market, but this is being offset by renewed uncertainty over the security situation in the Gulf. Reuters reported that the US was sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East, while President Trump was considering whether to resume strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections.
At the same time, China's suspension of refined-product exports for October is tightening the outlook for global fuel supply. Chinese refiners have halted exports outside Hong Kong and Macau as Beijing prioritises domestic inventories, a move that could remove additional gasoline and diesel volumes from international markets.
The conflicting signals explain why crude has struggled to establish a clear direction. On one side, recovering Middle East exports and pressure on European countries to release emergency diesel stocks could increase available supply and moderate prices. On the other, continued disruption around the Gulf, tighter refined-product markets and the possibility of further escalation are keeping a significant risk premium in crude prices.
The $100 per barrel level has consequently become an important threshold for the market, particularly as traders assess how long global oil and fuel supply chains could remain vulnerable. Brent was heading for a weekly decline of about 2% in early Friday trading, despite its more than $4 gain on Thursday, while WTI was on course for a weekly increase of roughly 0.3%.
For Nigeria's downstream market, the direction of crude prices remains important because international benchmarks feed into refined-product import economics and landing costs. However, the current market shows that crude prices alone are not determining product costs; freight, insurance, product availability and geopolitical risks are also becoming increasingly important.
The immediate outlook therefore remains dependent on the balance between recovering crude flows and renewed threats to Middle East supply. If oil movements through Hormuz continue to normalise and regional exports recover, pressure on crude prices could increase. But sustained disruption to shipping or further restrictions on refined-product exports could keep prices elevated even as physical crude availability improves.