Global oil prices climbed by about 2 percent on Monday as fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia and strikes on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns over crude supply disruptions, overshadowing plans to increase Russian diesel exports and a reported energy truce between Moscow and Kyiv.
Brent crude futures rose by $2.09, or 2.00 per cent, to $106.80 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $1.93, or 2.10 per cent, to $93.78 per barrel on Monday morning, according to Oilprice.com data.
The gains pushed both benchmarks to their highest levels in nearly two weeks, reflecting renewed market concerns about the security of oil shipments through the Middle East.
The latest developments followed a weekend of attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a Houthi strike on Riyadh's international airport on Saturday that reportedly killed 13 people and injured more than 300. Additional attacks were reported on Sunday, alongside strikes on two oil tankers near Oman and within the Strait of Hormuz.
The tanker incidents have raised concerns about the recovery of petroleum exports from the Gulf, where shipments remain below prewar levels despite improvements in September.
Gulf crude and condensate exports recovered to 91 per cent of their prewar levels during the month, while total oil exports reached 81 per cent. Refined petroleum product shipments, however, remained at just 60 per cent of their prewar volume.
The renewed security risks have also prompted higher price expectations among some financial institutions. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, estimating that geopolitical risks were adding slightly more than $20 per barrel to prevailing oil prices.
The market rally comes despite expectations of weaker global oil demand growth in 2026, with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) substantially lowering its outlook from the beginning of the year.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Monday that the group now expects global oil demand to increase by 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared with its initial forecast of 1.4 million barrels per day.
The latest projection is marginally higher than the 380,000 barrels per day forecast issued in September, although it remains 1 million barrels per day below the outlook at the beginning of the year.
OPEC expects some demand postponed by this year's disruptions to return in 2027.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), however, anticipates a sharper contraction, forecasting that global oil consumption will decline by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026 before rebounding by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027.
On the supply side, additional Russian diesel exports could help ease pressure on fuel markets, although the extent of their impact will depend on how much additional product reaches buyers.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel, equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels, to the United States and international markets, with further volumes expected.
Moscow has also partially relaxed restrictions on diesel exports, potentially releasing another 500,000 tonnes, or about 3.7 million barrels, into international markets.
Trump announced on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, however, accused Russia of violating the arrangement on Monday.
The reported truce has therefore offered limited reassurance to energy markets as fresh security concerns in the Middle East continue to dominate price movements.
Meanwhile, in the Gulf of Mexico, Shell, Chevron and BP were preparing to resume offshore production following disruptions caused by Hurricane Isaias over the weekend.
The competing developments have left oil markets balancing the prospect of additional supplies against renewed risks to production and shipping, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for international energy trade.