Crude oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump threatened further military action against Iran, adding fresh uncertainty to crude supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
As of 12:25 p.m. West Africa Time, Brent crude was trading at $92.12 per barrel, up 1.80%, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $87.85 per barrel, gaining 2.44%.
The latest movement followed renewed exchanges of fire between the United States and Iran, with Trump warning from the Oval Office on Monday that Washington was prepared to take further action if necessary.
The escalation comes as tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-conflict levels, restricting the volume of crude and other commodities moving through the strategic waterway.
Reuters reported that oil shipments from the Persian Gulf were averaging around 6 million barrels per day, while Kpler data showed that only five commodity vessels crossed the Strait on Monday. That compared with a 10-day average of 14 vessels.
The reduced traffic has heightened concerns over supply security because the Strait remains a critical route for exports from Gulf producers. Although crude continues to move through the waterway, current volumes remain significantly below levels recorded before the conflict.
ING commodity analysts said oil producers in the region had become more comfortable moving crude through the chokepoint in recent weeks. Estimates cited by the analysts put current flows at between 6 million and 8 million barrels per day, although they assumed an average of about 5 million barrels per day.
They warned that another escalation could place those flows under renewed pressure.
ANZ analysts also pointed to satellite-tracking data showing approximately 6 million barrels per day moving through Hormuz, but noted that the volume remained below pre-conflict levels.
The supply concerns are becoming more significant as seasonal demand begins to increase. Analysts said some of the buffers that have helped the global oil market absorb the disruption are approaching exhaustion.
US inventories are nearing minimum levels, while China's ability to keep crude imports subdued could face a stronger test as seasonal demand rises.
This leaves the market increasingly exposed to further disruptions, particularly if military tensions translate into additional restrictions on tanker movements through Hormuz.
The pressure is more pronounced in refined products, especially diesel, where supply is already tight.
Russia has extended its diesel export ban through the end of September amid continued Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. At the same time, Middle Eastern diesel exports have been affected by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and damage to refining facilities across the region.
The combination of reduced refinery output and constrained maritime trade could tighten diesel availability further, even if crude continues to flow through the waterway.
The developments have therefore shifted attention beyond crude prices to the broader fuel market, where prolonged disruption could increase competition for available diesel cargoes and put additional pressure on prices.
For the oil market, the immediate risk remains whether further military escalation will cause tanker traffic and crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz to fall further.
Any significant deterioration in the flow of oil through the chokepoint could intensify supply concerns, particularly at a time when inventories are being drawn down and seasonal demand is beginning to strengthen.