As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify, analysts warn that oil prices could surge well beyond current levels. Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent crude already carries a geopolitical premium of around $10 per barrel and could break the $90 mark if Iranian oil supply faces disruption.
The bank, which previously projected Brent to average $60 per barrel in the final quarter of 2025, assuming stable supply, now admits that this base-case forecast is becoming increasingly uncertain.
Trump’s Comments Stir Market Anxiety
The uncertainty follows statements by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested he may support Israeli military action against Iran. “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” Trump said earlier this week. His remarks have sparked fresh concerns among oil traders and geopolitical analysts, with many warning that U.S. involvement in the conflict could significantly escalate instability across the region.
Steven Bannon, former Trump strategist, publicly opposed the idea, warning that “another Iraq” would divide the U.S. further. Trump, however, maintained that the threat of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons leaves little room for hesitation.
Brent Could Top $100 in Worst-Case Scenarios
Goldman Sachs analysts also pointed to ongoing disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—caused by Houthi attacks on commercial vessels—as a sign of how vulnerable oil shipping routes remain. The situation underscores the fragility of global energy flows originating from the Middle East.
Barclays offered an even starker outlook. According to the bank, crude prices could exceed $100 per barrel if the conflict escalates significantly. If just half of Iran’s current oil exports, estimated at over 2 million barrels per day, largely sold to China, are interrupted, Brent could surge to $85 per barrel.
Market Reacts with Caution
Despite these warnings, oil prices have only pulled back slightly. As of Wednesday, Brent crude traded at $76.56 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $75.22. Market participants are waiting for more concrete signals from Washington regarding its stance on direct involvement.
While diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation continue behind the scenes, energy markets remain on edge. Any further deterioration could send shockwaves through global supply chains, raising fuel costs worldwide and placing additional strain on import-dependent economies like Nigeria.