Analysts expect oil prices to remain below $70 per barrel throughout 2025, citing global oversupply and fragile demand as the main factors. Despite Middle East tensions, markets have not seen a major spike in prices, mainly because no direct supply disruptions have occurred.
Brent crude is projected to average $66–$68 per barrel this year, while WTI may hover around $63–$64, according to investment banks. The outlook reflects steady production from OPEC+ and a cautious demand forecast shaped by weak global trade and economic uncertainties.
“Oversupply still dominates the market,” said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. “For prices to climb back into the $70s, production must fall or demand must grow beyond current expectations.”
OPEC+ continues to increase output, partly to pressure members who have overproduced and to regain market share from high-cost producers. However, analysts believe the group may pause output hikes if prices begin to fall sharply.
On the demand side, even peak summer travel may not offset concerns about slowing global growth. Unresolved trade tensions—especially the upcoming July 9 deadline on U.S. tariff negotiations—add another layer of uncertainty.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said higher production and shaky economic signals will keep oil prices subdued. “Rising output will cap any rally unless geopolitical risks escalate into real supply shocks,” he explained.
Both Reuters and The Wall Street Journal reported modest upward revisions in oil price forecasts, but the consensus remains bearish. Brent may average around $67.86 per barrel in 2025, up slightly from earlier estimates.
In summary, unless a major supply disruption hits, the oil market will likely remain oversupplied, and prices will stay anchored in the $60s.