Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other OPEC+ nations have agreed to raise collective oil output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning in November, signaling a cautious attempt to expand market share without upsetting price stability.
The decision followed an online meeting on Sunday, where members cited a “steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals,” pointing to low global inventories as evidence of balance. The modest hike, smaller than market expectations, reflects the alliance’s bid to maintain stability while responding to competitive pressures.
Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy noted that OPEC+ was treading carefully after recent market volatility. “The group is walking a tightrope between maintaining stability and clawing back market share in a surplus environment,” he said.
Market Balance Versus Price Protection
The new quota adds to over 2.5 million bpd already distributed since midyear among Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Algeria.
At the start of 2025, OPEC+ focused on supporting prices through supply restraint. However, since April, the coalition has shifted to reclaiming ground from non-member producers, including the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina, who have benefited from OPEC+’s earlier cuts.
Forecasts diverge on the outlook for demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global consumption to rise by 700,000 bpd between 2025 and 2026, reflecting weaker economic momentum. In contrast, OPEC projects stronger growth of 1.3 million bpd in 2025 and 1.4 million bpd in 2026.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell below $65 per barrel on Friday, losing nearly 8 percent in a week amid speculation of a bigger production boost.
Russia’s Constrained Output Capacity
Russia, the group’s second-largest producer, remains heavily reliant on oil revenue to sustain its war in Ukraine. Analysts say Moscow’s output potential remains capped by Western sanctions.
According to Kpler’s Homayoun Falakshahi, Russia currently produces about 9.25 million bpd and could stretch to 9.45 million bpd at most, still below its pre-war level of 10 million bpd.
Ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes since August have damaged Russian refineries, forcing the country to export more crude rather than refined products. “Moscow is becoming increasingly dependent on selling crude abroad,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of Global Risk Management.