The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has concluded the phased restoration of its 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) voluntary production cuts introduced in 2023 after approving a final 188,000 bpd output increase for September, completing a supply adjustment programme that has guided the alliance's production policy over the past year.
With the latest decision, the producer group has fully unwound the voluntary reductions agreed in 2023, while retaining a separate 2 million bpd production cut introduced in 2022, which will remain in effect through the end of 2026.
The September increase, approved at the alliance's latest meeting, applies to Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, following similar quota increases implemented in June, July and August. The United Arab Emirates, which was originally part of the voluntary production restraint, exited OPEC in May.
Although analysts had widely expected OPEC+ to suspend further production increases during the fourth quarter, the alliance's official communiqué made no reference to production plans for October through December.
Attention is now expected to shift toward managing market balances and preparing new production baselines for 2027, as OPEC+ reviews the maximum sustainable production capacity of member countries. The exercise is expected to shape future output quotas, with producers including Iraq seeking higher allocations to reflect expanded production capacity.
The group is also expected to monitor whether any surplus emerges if crude exports disrupted by conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine return to normal levels. Those disruptions, affecting producers across the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan, have limited the impact of this year's monthly production increases, as actual exports have remained below revised production targets.
Following the meeting, oil prices edged higher, with Brent crude, Nigeria's benchmark, settling at $90.12 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $84.67 per barrel. Both benchmarks gained more than one percent after declining by over five percent the previous week on expectations that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could ease.
Separately, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which oversees compliance with OPEC+ production agreements, raised concerns over attacks on energy infrastructure during the ongoing military conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, warning that damage to critical facilities is expensive to repair and could threaten global oil supplies.
The committee noted that maintaining energy infrastructure remains critical to market stability as geopolitical tensions continue to affect crude production, exports and shipping across several producing regions.
OPEC+ currently comprises 21 oil-producing countries, including members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC partners led by Russia. However, monthly production decisions are taken by the alliance's core group of participating producers, whose next meeting is scheduled for September 6.