The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reaffirmed its projection that global oil demand will increase by 17.9 million barrels per day (MMbpd), or roughly 18%, to 120.1 MMbpd by 2050.
This forecast, outlined in OPEC’s annual long-term outlook, underscores the organisation’s confidence in the continued growth of global oil consumption. The predicted increase is driven by rising demand from developing nations and re-evaluations of energy security priorities among advanced economies.
OPEC’s outlook contrasts with forecasts from other industry experts, including BP Plc, Vitol Group, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Wood Mackenzie, and the International Energy Agency, which suggest oil demand may plateau within the next decade due to the shift towards electric vehicles and renewable energy.
Despite these differing views, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais has emphasised the need for the oil industry to address climate challenges. However, the organisation maintains that phasing out oil and gas is unrealistic.
OPEC’s projections also indicate that the organisation and its allies will maintain their share of global liquids supply at 52% through 2050. Some member nations have expressed caution, delaying halted production restarts until December, citing concerns about fragile demand.
OPEC’s forecast growth rate exceeds expectations from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., and Saudi Aramco, with demand predicted to surge by 2 MMbpd this year.
The organisation outlook assumes emissions will be mitigated through expanded carbon capture and storage projects.