OPEC+ has kept its November oil production target unchanged at 31.01 million barrels per day for its seven core members, despite a recovery in crude flows through the Middle East and signs that supply constraints are beginning to ease.
The decision was taken at a virtual meeting on Sunday by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, which agreed to maintain their September 2026 required production levels for November. The group is due to review the market again on November 1.
The move extends the pause in output increases that began in October after the producers had progressively reversed part of the voluntary cuts introduced in previous years.
Although the 31.01 million bpd target remains unchanged, actual production has continued to fall significantly below the headline quota. The seven members produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, around 6 million bpd below their combined target and roughly 5 million bpd below their pre-war output level.
The gap between official targets and actual supply has become increasingly important as the market adjusts to disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran and the prolonged restrictions on crude movements through key Middle East shipping routes.
UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the producers were maintaining their ceilings even as flows through the Strait of Hormuz increased, leaving actual output below quota and keeping the physical oil market tight.
The latest decision comes as crude exports from the Middle East have recovered sharply. Reuters, citing Kpler and Vortexa data, reported that Gulf crude shipments reached a seven-day moving average of 18.3 million barrels per day during September and exceeded pre-war levels on 14 days of the month.
Kpler data cited in the earlier market assessment put the seven-day moving average for total Middle East oil flows at 18.5 million barrels per day in the week to October 1, covering shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and Bab El-Mandeb.
The recovery in exports would ordinarily be expected to support higher production, but the latest OPEC+ figures show that this has not yet happened at the same pace.
One possible explanation is that producers are drawing on inventories to support exports rather than increasing current production. Another is that a greater share of available crude is being directed towards international markets.
The prolonged disruption to Hormuz had also meant that much of the earlier unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts existed largely as a formal adjustment to quotas rather than an equivalent increase in barrels reaching consumers.
The group had been gradually restoring production during 2026, with four consecutive monthly increases before the October pause. The planned increases were intended to reverse part of the supply restrictions that had been introduced to support the market.
However, the war and disruption to regional shipping prevented much of the additional production from translating into a comparable increase in physical supply.
The latest decision therefore leaves the formal production ceiling unchanged while actual supply remains constrained by a combination of production limitations, logistical disruptions and the continuing risks around Middle East energy routes.
The situation has kept attention focused not only on how much OPEC+ members are authorised to produce but also on how much crude they can physically move into international markets.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to that calculation because of its role in the movement of a significant share of global crude and LNG supplies. Although flows have recovered, continued security risks around the waterway remain a threat to the reliability of exports.
OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee has also warned that attacks on energy infrastructure and disruption of international maritime routes can increase market volatility and affect overall supply availability.
For now, OPEC+ appears to be giving the market more time to absorb the barrels already restored before considering another increase in output targets.
The decision also reflects the uncertainty surrounding the physical supply outlook, with actual production still well below the levels permitted under the group's quotas.
As a result, the November decision leaves the oil market facing a significant distinction between planned production and deliverable supply, particularly while geopolitical and shipping risks continue to shape crude flows from the Middle East.