OPEC’s crude oil production declined in January, driven largely by lower output from two of its key African members, Nigeria and Libya, a Reuters survey has found.
Data compiled from shipping flows and industry sources shows that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped about 28.34 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, down roughly 60,000 bpd from December’s total. Nigeria registered the largest drop in output among cartel members, while bad weather hampered Libyan exports — both factors outweighing increases elsewhere in the group.
Production Downturn Despite Gains Elsewhere
The January decline occurred as OPEC+, comprising OPEC members and allied producers including Russia, paused its recent rise in monthly output increases. The freeze, aimed at preventing a potential supply glut, marks the first quarter in which planned monthly rises were deferred, even as some members operate near capacity limits.
Among the larger group of eight OPEC+ members subject to a production agreement, Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates were expected to hold output steady before accounting for compensation cuts imposed on Iraq and the UAE. While survey data suggests these five nations collectively lifted production by about 60,000 bpd month on month, the total remains below internal targets.
Country-Level Drivers and Market Implications
Nigeria’s output contraction contributed significantly to the aggregate decline. The fall aligns with other secondary data pointing to recent challenges in sustaining Nigeria’s crude flows.
Libya’s supply also weakened in January, reportedly due to adverse weather that disrupted loading operations. In addition, Iranian crude production edged lower. Tehran remains subject to U.S. sanctions designed to curb its exports amid ongoing political tensions and domestic unrest, further pressuring output.
On the other side of the ledger, some producers lifted output. Iraq exported more crude from its southern terminals, and Venezuela’s production rose modestly. Reuters reported that Venezuelan crude output approached 1 million bpd in January, with exports of crude and refined products rising to around 800,000 bpd.
Broader Context and Market Watch
The survey results reflect ongoing challenges within OPEC’s production landscape as the group balances production discipline with rising global energy demand. The output dip underscores how weather, sanctions, and operational constraints can sharply affect supply levels even as some members increase volumes.
Analysts say the current pattern places a renewed emphasis on geopolitical and operational risk factors in oil-market pricing, as supply-side developments continue to influence global crude markets.
OPEC’s January performance will likely shape market expectations for the coming months, particularly as the group weighs both capacity constraints and demand signals in its production strategy.