OPEC+ oil output drops 439,000bpd a sharp January decline that is already reshaping global supply expectations and easing fears of a looming crude glut.
According to the group’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, total crude production from the OPEC+ alliance fell by 439,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to December levels, driven primarily by an unexpected supply disruption in Kazakhstan. The decline also reflects reduced output from Iran and Venezuela, tightening supply at a time when oil markets remain highly sensitive to demand signals.
With Brent and WTI prices under pressure in recent sessions, the latest production figures introduce a fresh layer of complexity into the global oil balance.
Kazakhstan outage triggers bulk of OPEC+ oil output drop
The biggest contributor to the 439,000bpd drop in OPEC+ oil output was Kazakhstan, where production plunged by 249,000bpd in January.
The disruption followed a temporary shutdown at the giant Tengiz oilfield on January 18 after fires damaged a key power generation and distribution facility. The field, operated by a Chevron-led consortium, was forced to halt production and exports after critical site systems were affected.
Although Tengiz has resumed operations and is ramping output back toward 550,000bpd, the interruption significantly impacted January’s total supply figures.
Overall, OPEC+ crude production averaged 42.45 million barrels per day in January 2026, underscoring how even a short-term outage in a major producing nation can ripple across the global oil market.
Energy analysts say the incident highlights the fragility of supply chains within key oil-producing regions, especially when infrastructure disruptions strike high-volume assets.
Iran and Venezuela deepen supply tightening
Beyond Kazakhstan, OPEC members Iran and Venezuela also posted notable production declines, each cutting more than 80,000bpd compared to December.
Venezuela’s output continues to face headwinds linked to geopolitical tensions and evolving U.S. policy measures affecting its oil sales. As the country holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves, any fluctuation in its production has outsized implications for global supply.
Iran, meanwhile, remains constrained by sanctions-related challenges and regional instability, which continue to influence export flows and operational capacity.
Combined, the unplanned outages across Kazakhstan, Iran, and Venezuela have temporarily reduced the risk of oversupply a concern that had weighed heavily on crude prices in recent months.
OPEC+ keeps production quotas steady
Despite the January drop, the eight OPEC+ members implementing voluntary cuts since 2023 Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman have reaffirmed their decision to pause monthly output increases during the first quarter of 2026.
The alliance first adopted the pause in November 2025 and has since confirmed it in consecutive meetings, citing seasonal demand patterns.
As a result, February and March production quotas will remain at January levels.
The decision signals continued discipline within the group, as OPEC+ seeks to stabilise prices and manage supply carefully amid uncertain demand growth.