Oil prices may fall below $60 per barrel before the end of 2025 and could drop into the mid-$50s in early 2026 as growing supply threatens to overwhelm slowing demand.
OPEC+ has begun rolling back its production cuts, returning 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market in October. The move is part of the 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) reductions announced in April 2023. The group — led by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — said the adjustment reflects a steady global outlook and healthy market fundamentals, citing low inventories.
Analysts Warn of Oversupply
Analysts expect the modest rollback to put further pressure on prices. “Below $60 in the first quarter of next year is possible, mid-$50s is definitely possible, and then that will have a big impact on US shale production,” said Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus at FGE NexantECA, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
Fesharaki noted that markets have not yet felt the full effect of OPEC+’s decision. He added that weaker prices could slow supply growth in 2026 but also create conditions for a rebound later that year.
In early Asian trading on Monday, oil prices rose 1.6%, as traders had expected a larger production hike from OPEC+. If prices remain stable, OPEC+ may accelerate its unwinding of cuts, just as it did earlier this year when it rolled back 2.2 million bpd.
Even before the latest output increase, Wall Street forecasts projected crude slipping below $60. Market consensus points to a slowdown in global consumption in the fourth quarter, as strong summer demand eases and additional supply pushes the market toward oversupply.