The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus (OPEC+) has agreed to increase production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for June, even as the United Arab Emirates officially exits the oil alliance, a move that underscores growing fractures within the group at a sensitive time for global supply.
The decision was taken during a virtual meeting on Sunday, with member states framing the adjustment as part of previously agreed voluntary cuts aimed at supporting market stability, even as geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions continue to shape oil flows.
The group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia alongside five other participating producers, said the adjustment is tied to voluntary production cuts first announced in April 2023. In its statement, OPEC said, “In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023.”
However, the increase is expected to have limited real impact on supply. Export constraints in key producing regions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to slow physical deliveries despite higher quota announcements.
OPEC+ data already shows how tight conditions remain, with crude production from the group falling sharply by 27.5 per cent to 20.79 million barrels per day in March, one of the steepest monthly declines in recent years.
The UAE’s exit, confirmed on May 1 after its announcement on April 28, adds a new layer of tension inside the alliance. The country’s departure followed long-standing disagreements with Saudi Arabia over production quotas and long-term output strategy.
Abu Dhabi’s exit is being read as a strategic repositioning rather than a temporary dispute, with the UAE now expected to pursue higher independent production capacity through ADNOC, supported by large-scale upstream and downstream investments.
For now, the latest OPEC+ increase appears more like a policy signal than a physical supply boost. With export bottlenecks still affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz and coordination within the alliance weakening, attention is shifting to the group’s next meeting on June 7 and whether deeper divisions will shape future output decisions.