OPEC+ is expected to approve one final oil production increase for September before suspending its monthly output adjustments for the remainder of the year, signalling a shift in strategy as the alliance reassesses production capacity and market conditions.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, eight key members of the alliance, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are likely to endorse an additional 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase when ministers meet on August 2.
The planned adjustment would mirror the production increases implemented in June, July and August, completing the phased restoration of the voluntary supply cuts introduced in 2023. Those reductions originally totalled 1.65 million bpd, although the figure was later adjusted following the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC in May.
Beyond September, however, the group is expected to pause further quota increases until the end of 2026, with current production targets likely to remain unchanged from October through December before a new quota framework takes effect in January 2027. Sources cautioned that the proposal has not yet received final approval.
If adopted, the decision would leave an additional 2 million bpd of broader OPEC+ production cuts in place through the end of the year while the alliance finalises new production baselines for member countries.
At the centre of those discussions is an ongoing review of each country's maximum sustainable production capacity, which will determine individual output allocations from 2027.
Several producers, particularly Iraq, are seeking larger production quotas, arguing that recent investments have significantly expanded their capacity and should be reflected in future allocations.
The review comes at a time when geopolitical tensions and operational disruptions have complicated the assessment of actual production capabilities across the alliance.
The conflict involving Iran has reduced crude exports from several Middle Eastern producers and eroded part of OPEC+'s effective spare production capacity. Iraq continues to face export bottlenecks, Kazakhstan has scaled back production after attacks disrupted crude loadings through the Black Sea, while Russia is contending with refinery and export terminal outages.
Despite months of successive production quota increases, actual OPEC+ output has remained below target as infrastructure constraints, security concerns and shipping disruptions have limited the ability of several members to restore supply.
Industry observers note that while the alliance has authorised additional production in recent months, many members have been unable to fully utilise their higher quotas because of operational challenges.
The next phase of OPEC+'s strategy is therefore expected to focus less on raising production targets and more on determining how much oil each member can realistically produce and whether global demand will require additional supply in 2027.
Adding to the uncertainty, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that the oil market could face a sizeable surplus next year if crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels, a scenario that could influence OPEC+'s long-term production strategy.