OPEC+ is expected to keep oil production unchanged when it meets on February 1, extending its pause on supply increases through the first quarter of the year.
Despite persistent concerns about a potential surplus, the alliance sees no immediate need to adjust policy. Delegates say current market conditions do not justify a shift, even as geopolitical risks continue to surround key producers such as Iran, Venezuela, and Russia.
People familiar with the matter say the group has not yet held formal talks ahead of the virtual meeting. However, members broadly agree on maintaining existing output levels into March. As a result, OPEC+ is likely to reaffirm the first-quarter pause first agreed late last year.
Eight members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — have implemented voluntary production cuts since 2023. In November 2025, the group decided to suspend monthly supply increases. It confirmed that decision again in December and January.
So far, nothing suggests the February meeting will alter that direction.
Market participants say OPEC+ prefers a cautious stance during the first quarter, which typically marks the weakest demand period of the year. At the same time, the group continues to assess whether recent geopolitical developments could disrupt supply.
These include changes to Venezuela’s oil framework, renewed tensions involving Iran, and the pace of Russian exports. Russian supply remains under pressure from U.S. sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as the European Union’s ban on products refined from Russian crude.
Aramco Pushes Back Against Glut Narrative
Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser has dismissed fears of a looming oil glut, arguing that demand continues to rise while inventories remain tight.
Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Nasser said forecasts of a severe oversupply exaggerate market risks. He noted that global oil stocks remain below the five-year average.
He also pointed out that much of the oil held in floating storage consists of sanctioned barrels. As a result, those volumes remain largely unavailable to the broader market.
Nasser’s remarks align with OPEC+’s view that the market remains more balanced than many forecasts suggest. That perspective supports the group’s preference for stability rather than premature supply increases.
For now, OPEC+ appears to be staying the course. The alliance will use the first quarter to monitor demand trends, inventory movements, and geopolitical risks before reconsidering its output strategy later in the year.