Nigeria’s modular refining sector is projected to add 83,000 barrels per day (bpd) in capacity next year, with seven new facilities expected to commence operations in 2027.
The projection was disclosed by George Maher-Bonnett of Argus Media during his presentation on the African Energy Outlook at the 20th OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week in Lagos on Wednesday.
According to Maher-Bonnett, four modular refineries were operating in Nigeria as of September 2026, with a combined installed capacity of 32,000bpd.
He said seven additional facilities were expected to begin operations next year, bringing a combined capacity of 83,000bpd.
The projected additions would more than double the existing capacity of Nigeria’s operational modular refineries, potentially strengthening the contribution of smaller refining facilities to domestic petroleum products supply.
However, the presentation did not disclose the identities, locations, ownership structures or individual capacities of the seven proposed refineries.
Maher-Bonnett also highlighted the growing influence of domestic refining on Nigeria’s petroleum products market, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, whose increasing output is improving the country’s capacity to meet local fuel demand.
His presentation noted that Nigeria’s fuel demand had declined during the year, attributing the trend partly to higher pump prices.
He further observed that the Dangote refinery’s steady petrol production was weakening the economics of importing petroleum products from Europe into West Africa.
The presentation also highlighted Ghana’s improving refining capacity, noting that the 45,000bpd Tema refinery was ramping up production to strengthen the country's domestic supply.