The estimated landing cost of imported petrol in Lagos has fallen to nearly ₦1,072 per litre, following a sharp decline in international crude oil prices that saw Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lose approximately 9% in a single trading session. The reduction has pushed estimated import parity significantly below Dangote Petroleum Refinery's wholesale prices, creating a wider cost differential between imported supply and locally refined petrol.
The November 5 energy repot of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) put spot petrol import parity at ₦1,072.72 per litre at ASPM Jetty and ₦1,071.72 per litre at NPSC-NOJ Jetty, both in Apapa, Lagos. The estimates represent a substantial decline from the 30-day average import parity of ₦1,252.02 per litre, indicating a sharp reduction in the estimated cost of replacing imported petrol.
The decline follows Wednesday's sell-off in the international crude market, when Brent futures fell 8.10% to $95.21 per barrel, while WTI dropped 8% to $88.40 per barrel, on November 4. According to Oilprice.com, Brent had earlier declined by $8.94, or 8.6%, to $94.66 per barrel, while WTI lost $8.01, or 8.3%, to $88.08. The market reaction followed growing expectations of a possible end to the US-Iran war after President Donald Trump Republican party losses in the US midterm elections to rising gasoline prices and the economic impact of the conflict.
The easing of geopolitical risk premiums in crude markets has implications for international petroleum product pricing and Nigeria's import replacement costs. However, the extent to which lower crude prices translate into cheaper petrol imports also depends on international gasoline quotations, exchange rates, freight, financing and other landing charges.
Compared with Dangote Refinery's November 5 wholesale prices, the estimated import parity figures show a considerable gap. The refinery's PMS gantry price stood at ₦1,300 per litre, while its coastal price was ₦1,250 per litre. This places the estimated import parity at ASPM about ₦227.28 below the gantry price and ₦177.28 below the coastal price. At NPSC-NOJ, the corresponding differences are ₦228.28 and ₦178.28 per litre.
The spot import parity estimates were also approximately ₦179–₦180 below the 30-day average of ₦1,252.02 per litre. This indicates that the latest import cost calculations have moved considerably below the broader monthly benchmark, providing importers and depot operators with a different pricing reference for evaluating fresh cargoes.
The calculations incorporate international gasoline prices, foreign exchange, freight, financing and statutory charges. The bulletin used a seven-day average exchange rate of ₦1,347.44 per dollar, a 32% annual financing assumption for 30 days and an estimated 10-day shipping period from Lomé to ASPM and NPSC. Importantly, the estimated landing costs are pricing benchmarks and do not necessarily represent actual cargo acquisition costs or prevailing depot selling prices.
For Nigeria's downstream market, the widening differential between estimated import parity and Dangote's wholesale prices provides a fresh measure of the changing economics of petrol sourcing following the international crude price correction. The November 5 estimates stood at ₦1,072.72 per litre at ASPM and ₦1,071.72 at NPSC-NOJ, against Dangote Refinery's gantry price of ₦1,300 per litre.
