Petroleum market analysts say the recent slowdown in petrol imports into Nigeria reflects softer offshore prices at the Lomé trading hub and a stronger naira, which have reshaped buying incentives.
At the same time, fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE has sharply increased domestic supply, narrowing the country’s import requirement.
Lomé Prices Ease as Naira Strengthens
Market intelligence firm Platts reported that Ship-to-Ship (STS) petrol prices offshore Lomé have weakened in early 2026 compared with late 2025 levels.
Platts assessed the daily STS Lomé price at $669 per metric tonne as of February 12, 2026. The average price between January 1 and February 12 stood at $647.75/mt, down from an average of $688.50/mt recorded in November and December 2025.
Using a product density of 0.745 kg/litre and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s February 12 exchange rate, the equivalent market price at Lomé translated to about ₦675 per litre. After factoring freight and discharge costs into Lagos, the 30-day average into-tank price reached ₦722.08 per litre, based on calculations by the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria using Platts data.
However, Platts noted that delays in Nigerian import permits have left some volumes stranded offshore.
Jeremiah Olatide, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, said the stronger naira has helped private depot owners compete more effectively with domestic refiners. Many of them source petrol via STS transactions in Lomé rather than importing directly from Europe.
According to him, the firmer currency reduced foreign exchange pressure and improved cost parity with local supply. He added that before Dangote cut its diesel gantry price from ₦910 to ₦880 per litre, some private depots in Lagos had already priced slightly below the refinery’s ex-depot rate.
Olatide also pointed to tighter issuance of import licences by the regulator as a contributing factor. He said fewer approvals in the first quarter have supported local refining capacity and reduced FX demand tied to fuel imports.
Dangote Lifts Output by 25.3%
Meanwhile, NMDPRA data show that Dangote Refinery increased its daily petrol supply from 32 million litres in December 2025 to 40.1 million litres in February 2026, marking a 25.3 percent rise within two months.
The additional 8.1 million litres per day entered the market amid slower issuance of import permits. Nigeria’s average daily petrol consumption currently stands at about 60.2 million litres, down from 63.7 million litres in December as festive demand eased.
With output now above 40 million litres per day, Dangote supplies roughly two-thirds of domestic petrol demand, significantly narrowing the supply gap.
Monthly data illustrate the refinery’s steady ramp-up. It supplied 19.1 million litres per day in January 2025, 24.8 million in February, 22.9 million in March, and 21.5 million in April. Output later dipped to 18.5 million in May and 18.1 million in June before rising to 32 million litres per day in December.
Over the review period, capacity utilisation averaged about 61.27 percent, according to the regulator. The refinery has, however, maintained that it can deliver up to 75 million litres per day if required.
Imports Decline as Local Supply Expands
Total petrol supply into the country fell from 74.2 million litres per day in December 2025 to 63 million litres in January 2026, largely due to reduced seasonal demand and lower import volumes.
Analysts say the combination of softer Lomé prices, improved exchange rate stability, and rising domestic output has altered Nigeria’s petrol trade balance. As local refining gains momentum and import permits remain selective, imports may continue to ease, with implications for FX demand and broader market pricing dynamics.