Nigeria’s petrol imports rose by 233.9 per cent between May and July 2026, even as domestic refining capacity expanded, raising concerns over the growing role of imported products in the country’s fuel supply.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), in a policy brief on petroleum-product imports and the future of domestic refining, said the sharp increase warranted closer scrutiny of the basis for granting import approvals.
The organisation, which relied on data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), said average daily Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports increased from 5.9 million litres in May to 18.1 million litres in June and 19.7 million litres in July 2026.
At the same time, average daily domestic petrol supply declined from 41.5 million litres in May to 32.5 million litres in June and 25.8 million litres in July.
The combined movement resulted in a substantial increase in the contribution of imports to Nigeria’s petrol supply. Imported PMS represented 43.3 per cent of total petrol receipts in July, compared with 12.4 per cent in May.
CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the trend was particularly significant given the increase in Nigeria’s domestic refining potential.
“Petroleum-product imports should function as a transparent supply-gap instrument, not as a parallel market that displaces adequate domestic production,” Yusuf said.
He argued that where domestic refineries are capable of producing petroleum products in acceptable quantities and quality at competitive prices, indiscriminate import licensing could undermine investments in refining, employment, foreign-exchange conservation, industrialisation and national energy security.
The development comes as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has expanded Nigeria’s refining potential, alongside expectations that other domestic refineries will contribute increasingly to local petroleum-product supply.
CPPE noted that Dangote Refinery reported a test run above 700,000 barrels per day in June, while NMDPRA had previously reported average domestic refinery capacity utilisation of 99.12 per cent in April.
Against this backdrop, the centre said the policy debate should not be framed around completely eliminating petrol imports. Instead, it said the key issue was whether imports were being approved after establishing that local refineries could not meet the relevant demand.
Yusuf said imports remained necessary under specific circumstances, including refinery outages, seasonal demand increases, product-quality gaps and strategic-stock replenishment.
“The policy concern arises where import permits are issued without a transparent demonstration that domestic refiners cannot meet the relevant demand at acceptable standards and competitive market terms,” he said.
CPPE said a deregulated downstream market should not mean that regulators become indifferent to how national supply is structured.
It warned that approving excessive import volumes when domestic supply is available could reduce refinery offtake, weaken refinery utilisation and shift demand, income and employment opportunities abroad.
The organisation consequently called on NMDPRA to determine and publish the actual supply deficit before approving significant volumes of imported petrol.
It said a credible assessment should establish projected demand, verified domestic production, available inventories, committed refinery deliveries, applicable product specifications, logistics constraints and the precise residual quantity that needs to be imported.
CPPE also proposed that import permits should correspond directly with verified supply gaps, carry specific shipment windows and expire automatically.
It further recommended that qualified domestic refiners be given a short, time-bound opportunity to meet an identified shortfall before the remaining deficit is allocated to importers.
The organisation also urged NMDPRA to disclose the beneficiaries of import permits, approved volumes and actual quantities landed, subject to legitimate commercial confidentiality.
According to CPPE, the economic consequences of avoidable imports extend beyond the petroleum sector because imported products require foreign exchange for the cost of the product, freight, insurance and associated charges.
It also pointed to the wider economic activity generated by domestic refining, including engineering, maintenance, fabrication, haulage, storage, maritime operations and professional services.
The centre described refining as a strategic anchor industry, noting that petroleum products and refinery feedstocks support several downstream industries, including petrochemicals, plastics, fertiliser, pharmaceuticals, paints, packaging and other manufacturing activities.
It warned that regulatory decisions that displace viable domestic production could consequently weaken Nigeria’s broader industrialisation ambitions.
However, CPPE said reducing reliance on imported petroleum products must be accompanied by reliable crude-oil supplies to domestic refineries.
“Product-import restraint without feedstock security would be internally inconsistent,” the organisation stated.
It called for greater coordination among the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), NMDPRA and crude-oil producers to ensure credible domestic crude-supply obligations, commercially workable pricing and dependable deliveries to local refineries.
The centre clarified that its position did not amount to a blanket call for an import ban or an attempt to shield inefficient domestic refiners from competition.
Instead, it proposed a policy approach based on “domestic supply first, competition always, imports only for verified gaps.”
Under the proposed framework, domestic refiners would still be required to demonstrate that they can deliver the necessary volumes, meet applicable product-quality requirements and compete on price.
At the same time, emergency import windows should remain available where refinery deliveries or inventories fall below clearly established thresholds.
CPPE also called for stronger competition oversight to prevent monopolistic pricing and abuse of market dominance as domestic refining capacity grows.
The organisation said Nigeria had reached a stage where downstream petroleum policy should move decisively away from managing chronic import dependence towards building a competitive domestic refining ecosystem.
It added that the credibility of Nigeria’s industrialisation agenda would partly depend on whether regulatory decisions were aligned with the objective of developing domestic refining while maintaining competition and ensuring adequate petroleum-product supply.