Nigeria’s petrol and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) inventories fell below the 30-day minimum fuel sufficiency threshold in July 2026, according to a review of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s (NMDPRA) July 2026 factsheet conducted by Petroleumprice.ng.
The regulator reported national stock sufficiency of 22.4 days for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, and 16.3 days for LPG during the month. The figures were below the 30-day minimum sufficiency threshold specified by NMDPRA, leaving petrol 7.6 days short of the benchmark and LPG 13.7 days below it.
The shortfall was not reflected across all major petroleum products. Diesel, or Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), had 46.5 days of stock sufficiency, while aviation turbine kerosene (ATK) recorded 58.6 days. Both remained above the regulator’s 30-day benchmark, indicating that the inventory pressure was concentrated in petrol and LPG rather than being uniform across the downstream market.
Petrol remains the largest of the four key products by daily consumption. NMDPRA recorded average daily consumption of 35.7 million litres in July, compared with 14.7 million litres for diesel, 1.7 million litres for aviation fuel and 4.4 kilotonnes for LPG.
The regulator’s 2026 demand benchmarks provide further context. Petrol demand is benchmarked at 50 million litres per day, while diesel is set at 14 million litres per day. The benchmark for aviation fuel is 3 million litres per day, and LPG is 3.9 kilotonnes per day.
The July stock position also comes against a supply environment in which average daily receipts of key petroleum products stood at 45.5 million litres for petrol, 23.6 million litres for diesel, 1.9 million litres for aviation fuel and 5.3 kilotonnes for LPG. These receipt volumes, however, did not translate into stock cover above the 30-day benchmark for petrol and LPG.
The LPG position is particularly notable because its 16.3-day stock cover was almost 14 days below the minimum threshold. At July’s reported consumption rate of 4.4 kilotonnes per day, the available cover provides a considerably smaller buffer than the regulator’s benchmark. The factsheet specifies that LPG figures exclude propane, an important consideration when assessing the reported inventory position.
The inventory position also follows earlier signs of pressure in the downstream market. NMDPRA’s comparative data showed PMS stock sufficiency declining from 17.7 days in April to 16.0 days in May, while AGO stock cover fell from 39 days to 31 days over the same period. PMS consumption stood at 46.3 million litres per day in May, while LPG consumption was 4.5 kilotonnes per day.
Supply movements during the earlier period were mixed. PMS daily supply increased from 44.4 million litres in April to 47.4 million litres in May, with domestic supply rising from 40.7 million litres to 41.5 million litres per day and imports increasing from 3.7 million litres to 5.9 million litres. AGO supply rose from 10.2 million litres to 18.8 million litres per day, while LPG supply declined from 4.5 kilotonnes to 4.1 kilotonnes per day.
Domestic refining remains an important part of the supply picture. The July factsheet recorded average refinery capacity utilisation of 71.09%, while its broader data set tracks crude receipts and product supply from domestic refineries. The figures suggest that refinery output, alongside imports and other supply channels, remains central to the ability of the market to rebuild inventories when stock cover falls below the regulatory threshold.
The gap between current inventory and the 30-day benchmark does not, by itself, establish a product shortage in the market. Rather, it indicates that the national buffer available to absorb supply disruptions, unexpected demand increases or delays in replenishment is below the level set by the regulator.
For petrol, the 22.4-day cover leaves a narrower reserve position, even though daily consumption remains below the 50 million-litre benchmark. LPG has an even tighter buffer, with 16.3 days of cover against the same 30-day sufficiency requirement. Diesel and aviation fuel, by contrast, have significantly stronger inventory positions at 46.5 and 58.6 days respectively.
The immediate market implication is therefore less about a broad-based shortage and more about monitoring replenishment of specific products. Sustained receipts, refinery output and import flows will determine whether petrol and LPG inventories can return above the 30-day benchmark or continue to operate with reduced buffers.
The July data also underline the different supply dynamics across Nigeria’s downstream market. While diesel and aviation fuel entered the period with inventory cover substantially above the regulatory minimum, petrol and LPG remained below the threshold, leaving those markets with less room to absorb interruptions in supply.