Nigeria’s Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) sufficiency rose to 33 days in January 2026, up from 29.2 days in December 2025, reflecting a 13 per cent month-on-month improvement in national fuel reserves.
However, the real story is not just the increase in total days. It is the structural shift behind it. Inland stock expanded aggressively, marine inventory declined sharply, and stronger domestic refining particularly played a decisive role in stabilising supply.
For a market that faced tight supply margins in late 2025, this rebound signals improved inventory management, stronger evacuation efficiency, and a more confident downstream system.
Inland Stock Surges as Marine Inventory Contracts
Fresh data from NMDPRA cited by Petroleumprice.ng shows that December 2025, total PMS sufficiency stood at 29.2 days, broken down into:
- Inland: 25.1 days
- Marine: 4.2 days
By January 2026, total sufficiency improved to approximately 32.9 days (33 days). But more importantly, the internal composition changed:
- Inland: 31.2 days
- Marine: 1.7 days
Inland reserves jumped by over six days month-on-month. This surge reflects stronger truck-out volumes, improved depot replenishment cycles, and increased domestic supply inflows.
Conversely, marine stock dropped significantly from 4.2 days to 1.7 days. That decline confirms reduced reliance on offshore cargo buffers and tighter import scheduling.
Structurally, this matters. Inland stock already sits within the domestic distribution grid, making it more responsive and less vulnerable to port congestion, vessel delays, or foreign exchange pressures. A higher inland-to-marine ratio therefore enhances supply resilience.
Dangote’s Output Boost Reinforces PMS Buffer
Domestic refining played a pivotal role in January’s improvement. PMS supply from local refining operations increased from 32 million litres per day in December 2025 to 40.1 million litres per day in January 2026.
This ramp-up, driven largely by improved throughput performance, strengthened inland inventories and reduced pressure on imports.
When domestic refining volumes rise, the downstream supply chain gains predictability. Instead of depending heavily on marine discharge schedules, marketers rely on steady refinery truck-outs. That stability directly translates into higher stock days.
In effect, stronger domestic production has begun to rebalance Nigeria’s PMS supply structure toward internal capacity rather than import dependence.
PMS Sufficiency in Context of Other Fuel Buffers
For January 2026, national fuel sufficiency averages stood at:
- PMS: 33 days
- Diesel (AGO): 34 days
- Aviation Fuel (ATK): 20 days
- Cooking Gas (LPG): 18 days
Diesel slightly outperformed PMS at 34 days, while aviation fuel and LPG maintained thinner buffers, indicating tighter supply cushions in those segments.
It is also important to note that PMS sufficiency had dipped to around 11.1 days in October 2025 before recovering to 16.5 days in November and 29.2 days in December. January’s 33-day position therefore represents a strong upward trajectory within one quarter.
Nigeria now enters 2026 with a firmer PMS cushion, stronger inland positioning, and improved domestic refining contribution.
If sustained, this structure could reduce vulnerability to import disruptions, stabilise retail supply, and reinforce confidence across the downstream market. The key going forward will be consistency maintaining refinery throughput, disciplined stock management, and responsive logistics to preserve the 33-day buffer.