Based on the price trends observed from November 11–17, the depot prices of PMS (Premium Motor Spirit) showed a gradual decrease throughout the week.
By Friday November 15, the lowest price was recorded at ₦1000, down from ₦1010 on Monday.
Weekly PMS Lowest and Highest Price
Monday: Ramaniya. ₦1010 Best Bono. ₦1030
Tuesday: Dangote ₦ 1010 Sahara ₦1030
Wednesday: MRS Tincan ₦1010 Nipco ₦1015
Thursday: Dangote ₦1005 Sahara ₦1010
Friday: Dangote ₦1000 Bovas. ₦1010
Similarly, the highest price dropped from ₦1030 to ₦1010 by the end of the week. This consistent downward trajectory suggests a likelihood of further reductions in depot prices next week. Thus, the predicted price range for PMS is:
Lowest price: ₦995–₦1005
Highest price: ₦1010–₦1020
This projection aligns with typical market patterns where prices fluctuate based on market activities, including supply chain dynamics and buyer confidence.
The narrowing of price differences between high and low points in the week also indicates a possible stabilisation of prices within this range, barring significant market disruptions.
Distributors may adopt more conservative pricing strategies to adjust for decreased market demand or competition among major depot operators.
While price trends are helpful for forecasting, other variables could significantly influence depot prices next week. For instance, any sharp fluctuations in international crude oil prices could create upward or downward pressure on PMS costs. Exchange rate volatility, especially with the ongoing challenges in accessing foreign currency, can also play a role, as most fuel imports require dollar-denominated transactions.
Stakeholders must monitor these factors closely to adjust their strategies and minimise potential losses.