West Africa faces growing risks of fuel shortages as geopolitical tensions tighten global oil flows, push prices higher, and strain refining capacity, industry experts warned during a webinar hosted by S&P Global Energy and the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN).
Analysts said a mix of supply shocks, logistical bottlenecks, and market uncertainty could escalate into broader disruptions, with import-dependent countries expected to feel the heaviest impact.
“West Africa remains structurally dependent on external suppliers, particularly Europe, for gasoline imports, leaving the region exposed to global market volatility,” said Gary Clark, Associate Editorial Director for EMEA Clean Refined Products at S&P Global Energy. He highlighted that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit chokepoint, are affecting diesel and jet fuel availability as companies stockpile amid uncertainty.
“Prices have risen because market participants are trying to secure enough product to store, unsure how long this conflict will last,” Clark added.
The risks are compounded by refining outages, according to Stanislas Drohan, Head of Fuels and Refining at S&P Global Energy. He explained that competition for physical oil and refined products—referred to in the industry as “molecules”—is intensifying, particularly in import-dependent regions such as East and Southern Africa. Sustained disruptions, he warned, could drive countries to seek alternative supplies, including Russian oil, with landlocked nations facing heightened socio-economic consequences.
“The longer this situation persists, the greater the risk to both supply security and prices for consumers and governments,” Drohan said.
Nigeria, however, is better positioned than many African peers thanks to domestic crude production, exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), and output from the Dangote Refinery, which is expected to bolster local diesel and jet fuel supply. Despite this, prices of key products—including Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), and Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK)—remain sensitive to global market fluctuations.
Industry experts also highlighted structural challenges in Nigeria’s downstream sector as it transitions from subsidies to market-driven pricing. Joe Nwakwe, Partner at Zera Advisory and Consulting, said the success of deregulation depends on frameworks such as competition safeguards and social protection mechanisms. He pointed to foreign exchange volatility, high interest rates, infrastructure gaps, logistics constraints, and policy uncertainty as key risks to market stability.
“Companies best positioned to navigate the evolving market will be those that can effectively manage pricing, foreign exchange exposure, regulatory risks, and capital discipline,” Nwakwe added.
As West Africa braces for potential fuel supply disruptions, experts warn that governments and companies must act quickly to mitigate economic and social risks, or risk further strain on households and businesses across the region.