U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has claimed that Iran has lost control of the Strait of Hormuz as crude oil movements through the strategic waterway recover towards levels recorded before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Rubio made the statement on Wednesday during a visit to Athens, where he said the strait was open and that oil shipments had recovered to almost their pre-conflict level.
“The Strait of Hormuz is open. There’s almost as much oil flowing out now as there was before this conflict began,” Rubio said, arguing that Iran had therefore “lost complete control” of the strategic route.
His assessment comes as shipping data shows a substantial recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports, although the pattern of movement has changed significantly since the conflict began.
Kpler data showed that crude exports from the Middle East Gulf region, excluding Iran, reached at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September, broadly matching the region’s pre-war export level.
However, only about 60 percent of the non-Iranian crude physically crossed Hormuz during the month, with approximately 40 percent leaving the region through alternative routes.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have increased the use of pipelines and other export routes, while a growing number of tankers have also been used in shuttle operations and ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait.
The development means the recovery in regional oil exports does not necessarily indicate that normal shipping conditions have returned to Hormuz.
Kpler data showed that about 9.9 million barrels per day of non-Iranian crude physically crossed the strait in September, with much of the cargoes changing vessels offshore. The volume remained more than a quarter below the pre-war level of crude crossing the waterway.
The distinction is significant because Hormuz remains one of the world's most important energy corridors, while the conflict has forced producers and traders to develop alternative methods of moving crude to international markets.
Rubio also said Iran's military position had weakened considerably since the conflict began in late February, following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear and military facilities.
He linked the alleged loss of control over Hormuz to the broader weakening of Tehran's military and economic position.
Rubio said U.S. sanctions were pushing the Iranian economy into what he described as “total and complete freefall,” arguing that Washington's economic pressure was severely limiting the resources available to Tehran.
He also accused Iran's leadership of directing funds towards Hezbollah and Hamas rather than addressing domestic economic pressures.
Iran's oil exports have meanwhile fallen sharply. Data cited by AFP from Kpler showed Iranian exports declining from about 1.85 million barrels per day in the spring to roughly 255,000 barrels per day in August, while exports from other Gulf producers recovered significantly.
The U.S. position on Iran's nuclear programme also remains central to Washington's policy.
Rubio said Iran could not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon and insisted that any agreement acceptable to the U.S. would have to guarantee that Tehran would never possess one.
He also argued that Iran had sought to build a conventional military capability large enough to make the country effectively untouchable.
The comments came as Washington and Tehran remained at odds over the conditions for any agreement, with Iran maintaining its position on uranium enrichment.
An Iranian official said Wednesday that Tehran would not surrender what it considers its right to enrich uranium, although the level and other details of enrichment could be discussed.
Iran has also rejected Washington's account of the situation in Hormuz.
Mohammad Reza Naghdi, an adviser to the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, said the strait remained closed and that Iranian armed forces retained full control over it until Tehran's demands were met. He also threatened to block routes Iran considers unauthorised.
The conflicting claims highlight the difference between physical control of the waterway and the ability of oil producers to maintain export flows.
While Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered substantially, maritime risks remain high. Reuters reported that tanker attacks, attempted attacks and harassment incidents around Hormuz reached their highest weekly level since the war began during the week of September 28 to October 5, with at least 12 incidents involving oil, LNG and LPG tankers reported by maritime security sources.
The elevated security risks have also kept shipping and insurance costs high, limiting the extent to which the recovery in crude movements has translated into normal trading conditions.
The latest developments therefore suggest that oil is moving out of the Gulf at much higher volumes than earlier in the conflict, but through a more complicated and costly logistics network.
For Iran, the sharp fall in its own exports and the continued disagreement over control of Hormuz point to a significant loss of influence over the region's broader oil trade, even as Iranian officials insist that their forces retain control of the waterway.
For global oil markets, the recovery in physical crude exports has eased some of the immediate supply concerns, but continued attacks, alternative shipping routes and elevated logistics costs remain risks to the durability of the recovery.