Ukrainian drone attacks on August 2 struck key Russian refineries in Ryazan, Penza, Samara, and Voronezh, slashing crude oil processing by 40,000 tons per day. The Ryazan refinery sustained the worst damage. Industry sources estimate repairs will last between one and six months, disrupting Russia’s domestic fuel supply chain.
Kremlin Imposes Export Ban, But Prices Keep Climbing
In response, the Kremlin enforced a gasoline export ban on July 28, set to run through August. However, this emergency measure failed to stabilise the market. Traders warned that export volumes remain too small to ease internal supply pressure. The market reacted sharply. On August 4, the price of Ai-95 gasoline surged past ₽77,000 ($946.6) per ton on the SPIMEX exchange, marking a new record.
Seasonal Demand and Low Stockpiles Strain Supply
Peak summer travel pushed demand higher, while local retailers lacked sufficient stockpiles. Many private stations failed to build reserves due to 20% interest rates, which made borrowing too costly. As a result, the market lacked the buffers to absorb supply shocks. Increased road travel, spurred by widespread flight delays, further tightened fuel availability.
Domestic Pressure Builds Despite Government Action
The Kremlin directed oil producers to increase local deliveries and delay refinery maintenance, but these measures have not reversed the supply crunch. Low inventories and infrastructure damage continue to weigh on the market. Despite the export ban, Russia faces physical fuel shortages, not just speculative pressure.
Analysts Expect Crisis to Linger
Energy experts project elevated prices through October, when demand may ease, and repairs could finish. However, prolonged outages could extend the crisis into 2026. Without strategic interventions such as price controls or fuel reserve drawdowns Russia risks deeper market instability.
Ukraine Targets Russia’s Fuel Revenue
Ukraine’s strikes aim to weaken Russia’s fuel export earnings and disrupt military logistics. The latest attacks exposed critical gaps in Russia’s energy resilience. Now, the Kremlin must choose between deeper domestic controls or facing a politically costly fuel crisis.