The disruption to crude oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could extend into 2027, after Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines warned that it no longer expects normal operations through the strategic waterway to resume before the end of 2026.
As at the time of writing 08:26 am (WAT), Brent crude was trading at $95.90 per barrel, up 0.40%, while WTI rose 0.36% to $91.63, showing the market’s mixed response as traders assess the risk of prolonged disruptions against actual oil flows.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, one of the world’s largest tanker operators, has warned that it no longer expects shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz to resume normally by the end of 2026. Its chief executive, Jotaro Tamura, said the latest escalation had significantly worsened the security situation.
“Given the current situation, it’s difficult to see operations resuming in any form by the end of the year,” Tamura told Bloomberg.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines had previously expected navigation around the chokepoint to gradually resume from October 2026 and return to normal by January 2027. However, renewed strikes between Washington and Tehran have undermined that timeline, with the company saying the current level of risk remains unacceptable.
The tanker giant currently has no plans to resume transporting oil through the strait. Tamura said the company would need to see a sustained de-escalation and credible guarantees of safe passage before returning to the route.
Observable traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to only a handful of transits per day since the latest escalation, raising concerns that the disruption could undermine the tentative recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows recorded in recent weeks. Japan is consequently preparing an energy-import diversification strategy that could include support for pipelines designed to move Middle Eastern crude around the chokepoint.