Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by about 95% from its pre-war level, with only seven vessels recorded crossing the strategic waterway in 24 hours, compared with an average of 130 vessels a day before the US-Israel-Iran war began on February 28.
Preliminary vessel tracking data from Kpler, cited in a Reuters report published on September 11, showed that two vessels travelled outbound and five inbound through the strait during the period. The latest traffic level represents a 94.6% decline from the pre-war daily average of 130 vessels.
The tracking data covers only vessels with their positioning systems switched on, meaning the actual number of ships navigating the strait could be higher. Some vessel operators and commodity buyers are believed to be turning off Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals to reduce the risk of detection as security concerns intensify.
The decline in visible traffic comes amid renewed attacks on tankers and growing uncertainty over the safety of commercial shipping across the region. Energy companies and vessel owners are also facing a separate threat from Iran-aligned Houthi forces operating around the Red Sea and targeting Saudi-linked energy shipments.
The latest disruption comes against a backdrop of rising crude prices. Brent and West Texas Intermediate have both moved above $100 per barrel, with Brent approaching $110 earlier on Friday. Oil prices were also on course to record their first weekly close above $100 since May.
The market response reflects growing concern that the conflict could persist and further disrupt regional energy supplies. ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said the latest price strength shows that the market is increasingly factoring in both the duration and severity of the conflict, alongside greater risks to regional supply.
Although some crude and petroleum products continue to move through Hormuz, flows remain substantially below pre-war levels. Current estimates put crude and petroleum product shipments exiting the strait at about 10 million barrels per day (bpd), including roughly 9 million bpd of crude.
Those volumes are estimated to be around half their pre-war levels, while fuel availability remains severely constrained. The reduced product flows are adding further pressure to already tight middle distillate markets.
The shipping risks are not limited to Hormuz. RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft warned that Brent could reach $120 per barrel by the end of the year if fighting continues. She also pointed to the worsening security situation around the Bab el Mandeb, where Houthi advances are threatening maritime traffic.
The concerns intensified following reports that Yemen's Houthi forces had taken control of the Red Sea port of Mokha. Such a development could provide the group with greater opportunities to mount attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure and tankers operating in the Red Sea.
The combination of disruptions around Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb has increased the vulnerability of energy supply routes on both sides of the Arabian Peninsula, adding another layer of risk to an already strained global petroleum market.
Higher oil prices are also beginning to feed into wider financial market concerns. The latest crude rally has pushed bond yields higher as investors assess the possibility that persistent energy inflation could force central banks to keep monetary policy tighter.
A fresh JPMorgan forecast indicates that between eight and nine developed economies could raise interest rates before the end of the year. The group includes the United States, Japan, four European central banks, including the European Central Bank, as well as Australia and New Zealand.
JPMorgan analysts said the expected tightening would probably remain limited for now but warned that stronger economic activity, persistent core inflation and rising commodity costs could increase the need for additional rate increases.
The pressure is also spreading across Asian economies, where governments may have to extend financial support to households and businesses as higher crude prices feed into energy costs, particularly diesel.
For the oil market, however, the immediate concern remains the security of physical supply routes. A sustained reduction in Hormuz traffic could further constrain the movement of crude and refined products, while simultaneous threats around the Red Sea could complicate alternative shipping routes.
The prospect of a quick resolution remains uncertain. Although US President Donald Trump said earlier in the week that the war would end after the November elections, continued fighting and the absence of active peace negotiations have raised doubts over whether the conflict will ease in the near term.
With vessel movements through Hormuz now at a fraction of normal levels, oil prices above $100 and security risks spreading across major regional shipping corridors, the conflict is increasingly being reflected not only in energy markets but also in inflation and interest rate expectations globally.