A large volume of crude oil that has remained stuck on tankers in the Persian Gulf is expected to begin moving toward Asian markets following a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran that signals a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route.
Shipping and tanker tracking data cited by Bloomberg, including figures from Vortexa, indicate that about 80 million barrels of crude are currently held on roughly 40 vessels waiting for clearance to transit the waterway.
Of this volume, 21 tankers are expected to sail toward Asia once normal shipping operations resume. Five are scheduled to discharge in China, while another five are headed for Malaysia and Singapore, key refining and storage hubs in the region. The cargoes are not classified as Iranian crude, according to Bloomberg.
The development follows a ceasefire framework reached between Washington and Tehran, which market participants say could ease restrictions on tanker movement through one of the world’s most sensitive oil chokepoints.
Earlier estimates from Bloomberg had placed the volume of stranded crude at about 62 million barrels destined for Asian buyers. The latest Vortexa data suggests a higher figure, pointing to a larger backlog of cargoes awaiting transit through Hormuz.
The potential release of these shipments is already shaping market expectations, with traders pricing in additional supply at a time when global oil benchmarks have been trending lower.
Asian refiners are seen as the main destination for the delayed barrels. These processors were among the most affected during earlier disruptions, when reduced flows from the Middle East forced them to adjust sourcing strategies and increase purchases from alternative suppliers in West Africa, North America, and South America.
Some refiners also scaled back run rates during the disruption period, while others relied more heavily on inventory withdrawals to maintain steady operations.
With shipping conditions expected to improve, refiners could now use incoming cargoes to restore processing levels or rebuild stockpiles that were drawn down over recent months. However, traders caution that many buyers in Asia have already secured crude supplies for June and July, which may limit immediate spot demand.
The outlook for improved supply flows has also influenced expectations in the financial markets, where major banks have adjusted crude price forecasts in response to easing geopolitical risk.
Morgan Stanley projects Brent crude to average about $90 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and around $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter, reflecting expectations of a more stable supply environment.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $80 per barrel and revised its longer-term outlook downward, citing expectations that shipping through Hormuz could normalise by late July.
Citi has taken a more bearish position, projecting Brent crude at about $75 per barrel in the next quarter, as additional supply enters global markets.
Oil prices have already softened in anticipation of improved flows, with Brent crude trading below $80 per barrel in recent sessions, while West Texas Intermediate remains under pressure amid expectations of stronger global supply availability.
The return of stranded Gulf cargoes is expected to gradually ease supply constraints in Asia, while reinforcing the broader market shift toward softer crude pricing in the near term.