Nigeria has emerged as Africa’s leading destination for oil and gas investment, with fresh capital inflows crossing $10bn in just two years as President Bola Tinubu’s energy reforms begin to reshape the sector, according to a new government report.
The report, obtained by Punch and attributed to the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, showed Nigeria’s share of upstream Final Investment Decisions in Africa climbed sharply from four per cent to about 40 per cent between 2024 and 2025, placing the country ahead of long-standing competitors such as Angola, Algeria and Mozambique.
According to the report, “In the last two years, Nigeria has become the number one destination for capital in Africa underpinned by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s energy reforms,” adding that the country reversed years of declining investor confidence at a time global upstream spending was tightening. It added that the shift has already unlocked “a renewed pipeline of over $10bn in Final Investment Decisions,” largely in deep offshore and integrated gas projects.
The document said the turnaround was driven by executive orders and fiscal reforms designed to make Nigeria’s oil and gas sector easier to invest in. These measures included clearer regulatory roles for the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, tax incentives for deepwater and gas projects, and changes to cost structures and VAT rules that reduced project delays and improved returns for investors.
One of the clearest outcomes of the policy shift was the completion of about $4bn in divestments by international oil companies, with assets previously controlled by Shell, ExxonMobil, Agip and Equinor now transferred to indigenous operators including Renaissance, Seplat, Oando and Chappal. According to the report, “A deliberate programme of divestments has enabled the transfer of onshore and shallow-water assets to capable indigenous independents, unlocking record growth in onshore production and creating a more balanced, performance-driven asset ownership structure.”
The report said Nigeria’s crude oil production rose from about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 to roughly 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, adding nearly 400,000 barrels per day and lifting onshore output to its strongest level in two decades. It added that the government is targeting long-term production of three million barrels per day, backed by a project pipeline valued at more than $50bn, including Bonga South West, Zaba Zaba, Owowo, Nsiko, Preowei, Bosi, Erha and Usan.
Gas also recorded strong growth under the reform programme, with utilisation rising from 2.33 billion standard cubic feet per day in 2023 to 3.25 billion standard cubic feet per day in 2026. The report said this 40 per cent increase has strengthened Nigeria’s position in LNG, petrochemicals and domestic gas supply. “Gas is now firmly positioned not only as a transition fuel but as a foundation for industrialisation, export growth, and domestic value creation,” the report stated, noting that export volumes have already risen by 39 per cent while major projects such as the $2bn HI Non-Associated Gas Project move ahead.
The report also pointed to gains in refining and fuel supply, stating that local petrol production rose from near-zero levels in 2023 to 48.2 million litres per day in 2026, while diesel output reached 17.16 million litres daily. It said the jump in domestic refining has improved fuel availability, ended the long queues that once defined petrol supply across the country, and strengthened Nigeria’s standing as Africa’s most attractive destination for energy capital.