Even as Nigeria ramps up its crude oil imports from the United States, driven by its new Dangote Refinery, domestic U.S. demand for crude oil is slipping, highlighting a shifting dynamic in global oil flows.
In February and March 2025, the U.S. exported more crude to Nigeria than it imported from the West African nation. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), this reversal was fueled by reduced demand at American refineries undergoing maintenance, as well as rising demand at Nigeria’s 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery.
WTI Exports Surge on Slowed U.S. Refinery Operations
U.S. crude exports to Nigeria surged to 111,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February and climbed to 169,000 bpd in March. During the same period, U.S. imports from Nigeria dipped sharply—from 133,000 bpd in January to just 54,000 bpd in February, with a modest rebound to 72,000 bpd in March.
A major reason for this export shift was a temporary shutdown at the Phillips 66 refinery in New Jersey, which significantly reduced U.S. domestic demand. Even though the refinery resumed operations in April, overall U.S. refining demand continues to lag behind expectations.
Dangote Turns to WTI for Reliability and Quality
At the heart of this trend lies Nigeria’s Dangote refinery. Due to poor local crude supply, the refinery has leaned heavily on American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, which offers superior gasoline blending qualities.
By June, U.S. crude made up nearly one-third of Dangote’s feedstock. WTI’s ability to yield more reformate—a key gasoline blending component—gives it a technical edge over other grades. Combined with faster shipping timelines, WTI has become an ideal choice for Nigeria’s refining needs.
U.S. Refineries Face Long-Term Headwinds
Beyond temporary maintenance, structural changes in the U.S. refining sector are beginning to take shape. Two major California-based refineries—operated by Valero and Phillips 66—are set to close permanently, eliminating nearly 300,000 bpd of refining capacity. This will likely reduce domestic crude demand and sustain export availability.
Nigeria Struggles to Meet OPEC Targets
Despite being Africa’s top oil producer, Nigeria continues to underperform in crude output. Currently producing around 1.4 million bpd, well below its OPEC+ quota, the country is lobbying for a revised target of 2 million bpd within two years.
Until production rebounds, Dangote’s operations may remain dependent on foreign crude, especially WTI from the U.S., even as U.S. refiners consume less at home.