Growing expectations of a US-Iran deal are fuelling fresh hopes of lower fuel prices in Nigeria, as industry sources revealed to Petroleumprice.ng that Dangote Refinery could reduce its petrol and diesel ex-gantry prices if global crude oil prices continue to decline. The expectation comes as international oil prices retreat and marketers hold back bulk purchases in anticipation of an imminent price crash.
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The development comes as Brent crude slipped below $84 per barrel following reports of a breakthrough agreement between Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising expectations that local fuel prices could soon follow the same downward trajectory.
Multiple market sources said both petrol (PMS) and diesel (AGO) prices are now under pressure, with marketers already delaying fresh purchases in anticipation of cheaper products in the coming days.
According to The PUNCH, a source within Dangote Refinery revealed that a reduction in gantry price would ordinarily be expected, but the refinery is still carrying a substantial volume of crude acquired at significantly higher prices.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity said petrol could eventually sell for as low as ₦900 per litre if international crude prices continue to weaken.
“Yes, ₦900/litre petrol is possible if oil prices settle down, but we still have the expensive crude stock in our tanks,” the source confirmed.
Another source within the refinery familiar with market developments told Petroleumprice.ng that international oil benchmarks would ultimately determine Dangote Refinery's next pricing decision.
“If oil prices continue to fall and the US-Iran deal is signed, most likely there's going to be a deduction in price,” the source said.
The source added that the market is already adjusting ahead of any official announcement, with many independent marketers intentionally slowing down purchases over the past week.
According to market checks, several marketers have adopted a wait-and-see approach, betting that a sustained decline in global oil prices will force suppliers to lower gantry prices.
The development could trigger another intense price competition among private depots, especially in Lagos, where several operators have already been selling both PMS and AGO below prevailing ex-gantry prices in recent weeks.
Industry analysts say the coming days will be crucial. If the US-Iran agreement is formally signed and crude prices remain on a downward path, Nigeria could witness one of its biggest fuel price adjustments in months.
For consumers already battling high transportation and energy costs, the prospect of cheaper petrol and diesel offers a rare glimpse of relief. However, market watchers caution that the pace and size of any reduction will largely depend on how quickly refiners exhaust existing high-cost crude inventories and adjust their pricing templates to reflect the new global reality.