Wall Street forecasts show oil prices sliding further in the coming months, with Brent crude projected at $62.73 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $59.65 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.
Rising Supply Pushes Market Toward Oversupply
Analysts warn that increased production from OPEC+ and higher output from South America will tip the oil market into oversupply by late 2025. They expect global demand to ease after a strong summer, leaving rising supply to overwhelm consumption in the fourth quarter.
Despite geopolitical risks, Wall Street banks—including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan—have trimmed their price forecasts. The survey shows Brent crude averaging $63.57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, down from July’s estimate of $64.13 and below Friday’s prompt price of around $68. WTI crude is expected to average $60.30, down from last month’s $61.11 and below the current $64.
U.S. Shale Faces Cost Pressure
The U.S. shale industry continues to feel the squeeze. Producers have started slashing capital expenditures to preserve cash, even though efficiency gains allow them to maintain output with fewer rigs and crews.
Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips, warned in May: “U.S. shale production will likely plateau if WTI stays in the low $60s per barrel, and it will decline if prices fall into the $50s.”
Executives earlier this year noted that a $50 WTI price would trigger significant declines in U.S. crude output.
EIA Offers More Bearish Outlook
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) holds an even darker view. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency predicts Brent crude will average just $58 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and sink to around $50 in early 2026.
The EIA projects global oil inventories will grow by over 2 million barrels per day late this year and early next year due to OPEC+ supply hikes—800,000 barrels more than forecast last month.
The agency expects U.S. crude output to peak near 13.6 million barrels per day in December 2025, before falling to 13.1 million bpd by late 2026 as drilling slows.
Outlook
Most analysts agree that oversupply will dominate the market over the next six months, keeping prices under pressure. If crude falls below $60, U.S. shale operators may accelerate spending cuts, intensifying production declines.
Energy Intelligence, however, forecasts U.S. shale will remain more resilient, holding output steady at around 13.5 million bpd through 2025 and easing slightly to 13.4 million bpd by the end of 2026.
Ultimately, how low oil prices fall—and how quickly producers respond—will determine whether the U.S. shale patch can withstand another downturn.