Oil prices are poised to log their first weekly gain in three weeks, bolstered by supply-side developments and improved macro data even as escalating tensions in the U.S.-China trade war keep demand cloudy. Brent crude climbed back to $68 per barrel, marking a robust 7% week-on-week gain as the Western hemisphere wound down for the Easter holidays.
Several short-term bullish factors fueled this rebound: OPEC+ unveiled new compensation quotas, the U.S. imposed tighter sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and global markets responded positively to unexpectedly strong March economic data.
Key Developments Driving Oil Markets
U.S. Turns Up Heat on Iran
The Trump administration imposed fresh sanctions targeting Iran’s crude exports, including penalties against Shengxing Chemical, a Chinese teapot refinery accused of buying over $1 billion in Iranian oil marking the second Chinese firm directly sanctioned.
EIA Staff Exodus Amid Musk’s DOGE Check
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reportedly lost more than 100 employees, nearly 40% of its workforce, due to voluntary exits tied to Elon Musk’s DOGE-related initiative, raising concerns over the continuity of key energy data releases.
Mauritania Ships First-Ever LNG Cargo
BP has dispatched its first LNG shipment from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project offshore Mauritania, aboard the British Sponsor carrier. The shipment follows a six-week delay in commissioning the 2.3 mtpa facility.
Equinor’s U.S. Offshore Wind Project Halted
Citing inadequate environmental review, the U.S. Interior Secretary ordered a stop to Equinor’s Empire Wind project off New York’s coast, stalling the Norwegian giant’s U.S. renewable expansion plans.
BlackRock Cleared to Acquire Utilities
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has approved BlackRock’s ownership of large stakes in public utility firms, overriding a 2023 motion by 16 Republican-led states opposing the firm’s ESG investing mandates.
Bahrain Resumes LNG Imports
After a five-year pause, Bahrain is re-entering the LNG import market, with a 170,000 m³ cargo en route from Sabine Pass in the U.S., despite the kingdom being an oil producer and sharing reserves with Saudi Arabia.
Europe Down to Two Russian Crude Buyers
Czech Republic ceased Russian crude imports thanks to expanded capacity on the Transalpine Pipeline (TAL) from Italy’s Trieste, leaving only Slovakia and Hungary as Moscow’s remaining European crude clients.
Congo Contracts Blackwater’s Erik Prince
Amidst conflict in Eastern Congo, Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, has reportedly inked a deal with the DRC government to curb mineral smuggling and secure strategic reserves of metals.
Italian Refinery in Global Crosshairs
Commodity giants Glencore and Gunvor, along with Azerbaijan’s SOCAR, are vying to acquire Italy’s API downstream business, which includes the Ancona and Trecate refineries, totaling 200,000 b/d capacity.
Malaysia’s LNG Output Hit by Force Majeure
A boiler malfunction at Petronas’ Bintulu LNG terminal (29.3 mtpa capacity) triggered a force majeure, setting a pricing floor under Asia’s JKM gas futures, which recently hit a 9-month low of $12/mmBtu.
China Sets New Coal Production Record
China’s March coal output hit a record 440.6 million tonnes, up 9.6% YoY, creating a domestic glut and prompting utilities to slash coal imports by 6% month-over-month.
California Refiners Flee Rising Costs
Valero Energy announced plans to idle or shutter its 170,000 b/d Benicia refinery near San Francisco by April 2026, citing soaring regulatory burdens marking California’s second refinery closure in under a year.
Trump Greenlights Major Copper Mine
The Trump administration is moving to approve a controversial land swap that would enable Rio Tinto and BHP to proceed with Resolution Copper, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper mines, in Arizona.
Ukraine Signs Scaled-Back Minerals Pact
Kyiv and Washington have signed a memorandum of intent on joint mineral resource development, laying the groundwork for a Ukraine reconstruction investment fund with a finalized deal expected next week.