Nigeria has officially lost its status as Africa’s largest fuel importer, following the rise in output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The title now belongs to South Africa, where shrinking domestic refining capacity has left the country heavily reliant on foreign fuel.
According to energy consultancy CITAC, Nigeria’s refined product imports have declined sharply as the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery ramps up operations in Lekki. In contrast, South Africa’s imports have surged, driven by years of underinvestment and refinery closures.
“Nigerian imports are dropping due to the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, executive director at CITAC. “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have consistently been the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
Fuel Supply Map in Africa Is Changing
The shift marks a turning point in Africa’s downstream oil market. Nigeria, long criticized for exporting crude and importing refined fuel, is now redirecting its oil to domestic refining, an ambition that has taken decades to realize.
The change also reflects a broader trend across the continent. Countries such as Uganda and Mozambique are working to develop their own refining capacity, though few projects rival Dangote’s scale or ambition.
Despite delays and cost overruns estimated at $20 billion, the Dangote project is now reshaping regional supply chains and reducing Nigeria’s dependency on European imports.
South Africa’s Reliance on Imports Deepens
Meanwhile, South Africa has emerged as the new hotspot for fuel traders. The country imported 4.2 million tonnes of refined products in the first quarter of 2025, outpacing Nigeria’s 3.1 million tonnes, according to CITAC data. Full-year estimates suggest South Africa will import 15.5 million tonnes, nearly twice as much as Kenya and more than double Nigeria’s projected 6.4 million tonnes.
The increase stems largely from the collapse of local refining. Since 2020, South Africa’s processing capacity has been halved, weakened by industrial accidents and a lack of reinvestment. As a result, imports now account for more than 60% of national fuel demand, according to state-owned logistics firm Transnet SOC Ltd.
To reverse the trend, the government last year acquired the shuttered Sapref refinery, once jointly owned by Shell and BP, in a bid to revive domestic fuel production.
Traders Shift Focus to South Africa
With demand rising and infrastructure struggling to keep up, international fuel traders have turned their sights to South Africa. Firms like Glencore and Vitol are already active, and Gunvor is reportedly among those shortlisted to acquire Shell’s retail network in the country.
As supply gaps widen, South Africa could become the next frontier for global fuel suppliers, at least in the short term. Meanwhile, Nigeria is slowly beginning to reverse decades of fuel import dependency, with Dangote’s refinery playing a central role in that transition.