Nigeria’s crude oil exports to the United States surged in May 2025 after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery scaled down its fuel output. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), daily imports of Nigerian crude into the U.S. rose from 358,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 364,000 bpd, the highest level since October 2019.
Reuters reported that the jump in imports followed an unplanned production outage at Dangote’s 650,000-bpd refinery, which reduced its operational capacity between April 7 and May 11.
Dangote Refinery Operates Below Capacity
The refinery has continued running its 204,000 bpd gasoline-producing Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit at reduced capacity due to multiple mechanical issues. After shutting down the unit between April 7 and May 11 for repairs, the facility reportedly experienced another closure between May 15 and May 25.
Although Dangote refinery officials denied any full shutdown, insisting that fuel loading operations continued, industry insiders confirmed the plant operated well below its intended output.
Reports indicate the RFCC unit will run at limited rates through October, dampening the refinery’s initial plan to reach full operational capacity by mid-2025.
Crude Surplus Drives U.S. Imports
With Dangote consuming less feedstock during the slowdown, Nigeria exported more crude to overseas buyers. The U.S. absorbed a significant share of this surplus, boosting weekly imports and helping draw down domestic oil inventories.
The EIA reported that U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 2.8 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels in the week ending May 23, against market expectations of a 118,000-barrel increase. During the same period, U.S. crude exports surged by 794,000 bpd to reach 4.3 million bpd, accelerating the inventory decline.
Refinery Ramp-Up Still Ongoing
Despite setbacks, the Dangote refinery remains on track to reshape Nigeria’s fuel supply dynamics. Since launching diesel and aviation fuel production in January 2024 and petrol output in September 2024, the plant has steadily increased throughput.
However, some key downstream units remain offline. The sulfuric acid alkylation unit is expected to start operations by mid-June, while the polypropylene unit is scheduled to come online by the end of June.
The refinery’s crude distillation unit has been operating at around 85% of its full capacity since mid-March, falling short of the target to reach maximum output before June.
Industry analysts still expect the Dangote facility to disrupt global fuel markets significantly once fully functional, likely displacing smaller European and Asian refineries by offering cheaper, locally refined Nigerian fuel.