The anticipated OPEC+ hike in oil production is set to reshape global energy markets in the second half of 2025. Goldman Sachs maintains its price outlook but now projects a sharper-than-expected increase in crude supply, signaling a potential recalibration across the oil sector.
According to a research note released Friday, the Wall Street bank expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to announce a 410,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) supply hike for June, tripling its prior projection of 140,000 bpd. This forecast emerges ahead of the group’s rescheduled meeting, now slated for Saturday, two days earlier than originally planned.
Goldman Predicts Steady Brent and WTI Prices Amid Supply Upsurge
Despite the projected supply bump, Goldman Sachs holds firm on its crude price forecast, expecting Brent to average $63 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) $59 per barrel through the remainder of 2025. The bank projects a moderate easing to Brent at $58 and WTI at $55 in 2026, barring major disruptions.
Analysts point to several reasons for the upward revision in expected supply:
- Modest compliance by Kazakhstan with prior production cuts.
- Lower-than-expected OECD crude inventories, which missed forecasts by 28 million barrels in April due to output shortfalls in Venezuela and U.S. shale.
- Saudi Arabia’s readiness to absorb lower oil revenues, consistent with broader macroeconomic resilience strategies.
Market Signals Align with OPEC+ Hike Expectations
The latest market behavior aligns with Goldman’s outlook. Brent crude closed the week at $61.29 per barrel, while WTI settled at $58.29, following an 8% weekly drop, the steepest decline since March. Rising puts skew and implied volatility suggest traders are increasingly pricing in a larger-than-expected supply uptick.
“The market’s central expectation has now converged to a 410,000-bpd increase,” Goldman noted, citing sentiment shifts reflected in price movements and volatility trends.
Risks Loom Ahead in 2026
While the current pricing outlook remains stable, Goldman Sachs warns of significant downside risks beyond 2025. A global economic slowdown or a full reversal of OPEC+’s 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts could drag Brent down to the $40 range in 2026. In an extreme scenario deemed unlikely but not impossible, prices could dip below $40, signaling a return to pre-pandemic lows.
For now, industry stakeholders and market observers will be watching Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting closely for confirmation of the anticipated supply increase and any policy signals shaping crude dynamics in the months ahead.