S &P Global Commodity Insights has warned that Brent crude prices could slide to $55 per barrel before the end of 2025 as OPEC+ ramps up supply, reversing production cuts first agreed in 2022.
Speaking at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore, Dave Ernsberger, co-president of S&P Global, cautioned that a combination of factors could trigger a steep decline. “If there’s a massive surplus, if Russian oil continues to flow into the market, if stock-building stops and inventories swell, contangos could blow out and prices may fall even lower,” he explained.
At the time of writing, Brent crude traded at $66.28 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $62.57. This places S&P Global’s forecast at more than $10 below current levels, highlighting immediate downside risks.
Russian exports remain steady despite the threat of fresh U.S. sanctions. These concerns temporarily lifted Brent and WTI prices today, suggesting that the possibility of a “massive surplus” remains hypothetical for now.
Meanwhile, inventories across the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) remain tight. According to Oxford Energy, OECD crude stocks have risen by only 4 million barrels since January, keeping them well below the five-year average.
China, however, has accelerated stockpiling. Reuters data on import flows and refinery runs indicate that Beijing is diverting significant volumes into storage. Analysts argue this trend reflects weak underlying demand, further supporting bearish forecasts.
Nevertheless, the market remains highly sensitive to potential supply disruptions. Despite warnings of oversupply, traders caution that the balance between supply and demand is fragile, leaving prices exposed to sudden swings.